On Wednesday (August 14), spot gold rose and fell, and the current dollar is around 2465, and the lowest level in the previous day was 2458.
This follows reaching its highest level since August 2 at $2,476 earlier in the day. In the previous session, gold rose more than 1%.
Gold has been rising steadily since the second half of last week, while crude oil prices are also rising, suggesting that this price action may be more driven by tensions in the Middle East.
That was even more evident yesterday, when a Fox report suggested that Iran could attack Israel within 24 hours, triggering a new buying spree.
Today’s focus is on United States inflation data, United States PPI data will be released at 20:30 Hong Kong time on Tuesday evening,
and traders are waiting for the July United States producer price index to be released later in the day.
(PPI) data and Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to gauge whether a large rate cut is likely.
The CPI data is expected to show headline and core prices rising 0.2% month-on-month. The market is pricing in a 50bp chance of a 50bp rate cut in September.
A low interest rate environment often increases the attractiveness of non-yielding gold.
In the author’s opinion; If the market is more optimistic about the realization of a 50 basis point rate cut, this could push gold towards the $2,500 level.
Gold technical analysis
–Daily chart
On the daily chart, gold can be seen finally rebounding to the resistance zone near the 2483 level. Bears can be expected to step in above this level to lay positions for a pullback to the 2360 support level.
On the other hand, the bulls want to see a further breakout in price, increasing bullish bets that will push the price to new highs.
–4-hour chart
On the 4-hour chart, it can be seen that the price is still confined to a range between the 2360 support level and the 2483 resistance level.
Market participants may continue to “range-trade” by buying at support and selling at resistance until a breakout occurs.
–1 hour chart
On the 1-hour chart, it can be seen that the current uptrend line defines the current bullish momentum. Buyers may rely on this trend line to position a breakout of the resistance level for a better risk-reward ratio.
On the other hand, bears want to see the price break below the support level, increasing their bearish bets towards the 2360 support level.
Author: Zhou Tong (Analyst) 14-08-2024
At 07:30 Hong Kong time, spot gold was at $2465.06 per ounce.
#The above is only the author’s personal opinion and has nothing to do with the company’s position.
# The strategic suggestions are for reference only, there are risks in entering the market, and investment needs to be cautious.